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Gambler's Fallacy
Category: Fallacy
What is it?
This fallacy is the belief that if a particular event has occurred more frequently than normal in the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), even when the events are independent of each other.
Examples
"The coin has landed on heads five times in a row, so it's due to land on tails next."
"I've had bad luck all week, so something good is bound to happen to me today."
How to Avoid This
Understand the concept of statistical independence. For events like coin flips or roulette spins, past outcomes have no bearing on future ones. Each event is a fresh start.
How to Counter This
Explain the principle of independence. 'Each coin flip is an independent event with a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. The coin doesn't 'remember' the previous flips.'