What is it?
A causal fallacy occurs when someone concludes that one event causes another simply because they are correlated or occur in sequence. It fails to consider other factors that might explain the relationship or that the correlation might be coincidental.
Examples
Person A: 'Crime rates fell after we increased police presence, so the increased police presence must have caused the decrease.'
Person B: 'I wore my lucky socks and we won the game, so my socks helped us win.'
How to Avoid This
Remember that correlation doesn't imply causation. Consider alternative explanations, including reverse causation, common causes, or coincidence. Look for controlled studies that isolate variables.
How to Counter This
Suggest alternative explanations: 'There could be other factors explaining this relationship. Have you considered that both events might be caused by a third factor?'