After Therefore Because
Category: Fallacy

What is it?

Also known as Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc, this fallacy confuses correlation with causation. Just because two events happen in sequence doesn't mean the first one caused the second.

Examples

"I wore my lucky jersey, and our team won. My jersey made them win!"

"The economy improved right after the new president took office, so his policies must be working."

How to Avoid This

Before concluding that one event caused another, look for other possible causes. Consider if the correlation is just a coincidence. Look for a plausible mechanism by which A could cause B.

How to Counter This

Point out that correlation does not equal causation. Suggest other possible causes for the event. 'The team may have won because they played well, not because of your jersey. There could be many reasons for the economic improvement.'

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